史上最大的搶劫案

謝國忠：降息無法治本或引發通脹
2008-10-10 每日經濟新聞
謝國忠搜狐博客　http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/


獨立經濟學家謝國忠曾率先遇見到此次全球聯動降息潮，昨日他對《每日經濟新聞》表示，目前他擔心全球央行聯手降息只能起到心理安慰的效果，並且認為央行不能根本性解決問題，毫無節制的注入資金還將引發通貨膨脹的問題。

　　謝國忠稱，央行的目標是提振股市價格，如果這一輪降息不足以帶動市場發生反彈，央行將繼續跟進，但央行最終只可能是短期內的贏家。

　　謝國忠指出，樓市泡沫的破裂已經摧毀了西方金融機構的資本基礎，這些機構大都存有很多房價支持的信用衍生品。眼下政府正在向這些機構提供注資。此外杠杆交易最少的商業部門也對借款投資表現謹慎，因為消費情況已經非常低迷。而私募基金作為一個重要的商業部門存在高度杠杆業務，使得它們在經濟下滑的過程中顯得非常脆弱。

　　謝國忠認為，目前政府不斷干預注資，表示西方經濟體正在選擇一條將其引向通脹軌道的道路。他說，“西方國家都在依靠政府貸款來幫助其充足資本，但是這些國家只是將其債務從一個經濟體轉向另一個經濟體，到最後政府將如何還清債務？”他指出，隨著債務轉向各國政府，那些過去幾十年來積累了大量外貿盈余，手持巨額外彙儲備的國家可能會遭遇歷史上最大的一次“搶劫”。

　　謝國忠認為，西方經濟體應該考慮降低社會中下階層的生活水平，長期以來，西方國家通過貸款來支持其高生活水平，但隨著泡沫破滅，他們必須面對資產負債表損失的後果，面對包括誰要受損，金融機構如何重組等問題，需要面對中下階層大部分人口需求下降的事實。謝國忠指出，西方國家這些人口比起中國和印度人民，其相對競爭力不足以證明其高生活水平是合理的。西方國家政府將累積越來越多的債務來維持不切實際的生活水平，其債務支付問題則將不斷導致貨幣擴張和通貨膨脹。

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謝國忠：只有減息是不夠的
謝國忠搜狐博客　http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/

世界各主要央行聯合減息企圖產生最大的心理效應。但我認為這個影響確實只存在於心理層面。市場可能很快上演一個重大的反彈。因為如果這輪減息力度不夠，還不足以形成一個反彈的話，各央行的後續措施就會跟進，他們的目標就是股價。短期內，他們會成功的。

但是，央行根治不了危機。全球經濟的硬著陸就在我們眼前上演。理由當然是信用緊縮。信用體系不起作用了，因為在所有構成西方經濟體的要素裡，股權資本是不足的。家庭消費者，至少澳大利亞、英國和美國人靠借錢造成了房產的泡沫。現在，房價正在下跌，他們必須去掉杠杆阻止破產，而不會借更多的錢去維持原有的消費。

西方金融機構持有的金融衍生品靠存在泡沫的房價的支撐。房產泡沫的破裂摧垮了他們的資金基礎。西方政府通過股份擴展或者是買入膨脹下的高價位有害資產向他們注資。這個過程目前正在進行中。但是除非消費者重新獲得股本金，並足以彌補他們在房價下所跌造成的損失，否則他們是不會從銀行借錢的，甚至是他們想借，銀行也不會借錢給他們去彌補虧空。

西方的商業部門所受影響最少，但是他們也不會借錢去投資，在此消費萎靡的時候。除此之外，另外的一個商業部門卻受到較高影響，那就是私募資金的槓桿收購。這些高杠杆作用的商業部門易於受到經濟低迷的影響。我認為槓桿收購部門的主要危機很快會來臨。它將削減相當大部分資本開支消費。

西方國家現在全部在依靠政府的注資來調整他們的財務系統。我認為他們造成股票資產上升的作用是真實存在的。但它也僅僅是把債務從經濟的一個部門轉移到另外一個。問題是，到最後政府怎麼去償還他們所有的債務呢？

我想西方國家是在走向通貨膨脹的解決之路。當債務轉移給政府之後，央行就不停地印錢，於是通貨膨脹就發生了。債務會被通貨膨脹衝走。本質上是他們在搶奪外彙儲備國家的財富，這些國家在過去幾十年裡靠貿易賺取順差並持有國外的政府債券作其外彙儲備。要提防歷史上最大的搶劫案。

我在十年前曾寫過全球化即意味著西方國家面臨工資壓力。西方國家的中低家庭的生活水平的下降是必須的。這種壓力隱藏於他們靠借貸來維持他們的生活水平。正是需要財產連帶信用及衍生出來的泡沫危機的發生來揭開真相。

當泡沫破裂時，我們需要面對資產負債表的結果，例如誰將遭受損失，金融機構怎麼對其資產做出調整，家庭部門如何節約以便恢復其資產負債。無論如何，西方國家總要面對這樣的事實，那就是對大多數民眾而言，生活水平必須下降。他們和中國及印度的相對競爭力不足以維持他們現在的生活水平。

我認為從政治上對生活水平下降的抗力只會導致通脹。西方政府將積累越來越多的債務來維持不現實的生活水平。他們的償付問題只會導致貨幣擴展和通脹。

我仍然看好黃金和能源，對增長和杠杆作用不太看好。消減利率會帶來增長和杠杆資產的一個反彈，這是賣出的一個機會。

Rate cuts are not enough/谢国忠

Major central banks coordinated rate cuts for maximum psychological impact. I am afraid that the impact would indeed be psychological. Markets may stage a significant bounce soon. If this round of rate cuts isn't enough for a bounce, the central banks will come back with more, because they are targeting stock prices. In the short term, they will win.

But, central banks cannot cure the problem. A hard landing of the global economy is unfolding before our very eyes. The reason is, of course, credit contraction. The credit system doesn't function because there isn't enough equity capital in all components of the western economy. Households, at least Anglo-Saxon bit, have borrowed against inflated house values. Now, property prices are falling. They have to de-lever to stave off bankruptcies, let alone borrowing more to sustain consumption.

Western financial institutions have warehoused credit derivatives backed by inflated house values. The bursting of the property bubble has destroyed their capital base. Western governments are injecting capital into them through share expansion or buying toxic assets at inflated prices. This process is under way. But, unless households have restored their equity capital, by increasing savings sufficient enough to offset house value decline, they cannot borrow from banks. Even if they want to, banks cannot lend to them for lack of collaterals.

The western business sector is least levered. But, they won't borrow and invest when the consumer sector is comatose. Besides, a significant part of the business sector is highly levered. Private equity funds have spent trillions of dollars on leveraged buyouts ('LBOs'). These highly leveraged businesses are vulnerable to an economic downturn. A major crisis in the LBO sector is coming soon, I think. It will cut capex spending considerably.

Western countries are all now relying on government borrowing to recapitalize their financial system. The equity capital that they create is genuine, I think. It is just shifting debt from one part of the economy to another. In the end, how could their governments pay off their debts?

I think that the west is moving towards an Inflationary Solution. As debts shift to governments and central banks keep pumping money, inflation will happen. It will inflate away their debts. That is essentially robbing the countries that have earned trade surpluses over the past decades and have kept their foreign exchange reserves in western government papers. Watch out for the biggest robbery in history.

I wrote ten years ago that globalization meant wage pressure in the West. A reduction of living standard for the middle or under class in the west was necessary. This pressure was hidden by borrowing to support their living standard. The property-cum-credit-cum-derivative bubble happened because there was this need to hide the truth.

As the bubble bursts, we need to face the balance sheet consequences like who would suffer the losses, how the financial institutions can be recapitalized, and how the household sector could save to repair its balance sheet. After all is said and done, the West still needs to face the reality that that the living standard for most of its population needs to decline. Their relative competitiveness against people in China and India cannot justify their living standard.

The political resistance to reduction in living standard will lead to inflation, I think. Western governments will pile up more and more debts to sustain unrealistic living standard. Their payment problems lead to monetary expansion and inflation.

I am still bullish on gold and energy, bearish on growth and leverage. The rate cuts are starting a bounce of growth and leverage assets. It is a selling opportunity.