揭穿的黃金泡沫神話

神話的黃金泡沫
2011年3月14號

揭穿的黃金泡沫神話

黃金的連續十年上漲。儘管生產穩定的回報，幾乎年復一年，一些市場人士仍然質疑其有效性作為一種資產類別。的確，金不付利息，而且也確實許多歷史上的黃金生產仍然存在著。然而，這些特質不應該從抑制它表演的貨幣資產。現金，畢竟，不付任何實際利益，而且有更多的錢存在比以往任何時候。那麼，為什麼黃金還收到了這樣嚴厲的批評？

我們相信，大部分是源於廣泛持有的誤解，認為黃金是形成金融泡沫。這是一個相當簡單的觀點 - 這僅僅是有勇無謀的黃金買家投機買盤的心血來潮，沒有理由以外，以出售給'大傻瓜'以較高的價格在未來。這是一個觀點，即假定黃金沒有內在價值，只是一種投機性的資產，已經吸引投資者的想像力。

我們不接受這些意見，對黃金掉以輕心。之前我們已經看到了泡沫，並完全知道他們是如何結束。我們沒有任何興趣在參與某種投機狂潮 - 這是一個災難的處方，在投資業務。值得慶幸的，但是，我們目前沒有這樣的黃金投資風險。由於我們的分析顯示，黃金實際上是一個令人驚訝的主管國有資產類別 - 也就是產生了更多的關注遠遠超過它在媒體上可能值得。雖然自2000年以來的出色表現無疑是值得討論的，黃金根本沒有足夠的投資，以保證指揮的泡沫的擔憂似乎已經引起了市場人士和商業評論家。黃金的真相是，大多數人根本還沒有擁有它...。

必須明確，投機泡沫就會形成一種資產類別價格上漲部級以上有道理的根基。為了做到這一點，越來越多的資本流入必須資產類別，招投標它不合理的水平。金價可能會在所有交易時間名義高點，但一看投資流動證明，它不是任何地方近乎超買。

在他們的黃金年鑑 2010年，CPM集團指出，在1968年舉辦個人黃金投資用途約佔 5％，全球金融資產。到1980年這一數額已下降到約 3％。到1990年已大幅下降至0.6％，而2000年只有0.2％，佔全球的資產。截至2009年底，九年進入黃金牛市始於 2000年，他們估計，黃金上升到0.6％，僅表示，全球金融資產 - 幾乎大部分的增加。黃金的所有權並沒有太大變化，去年無論是，我們估計，這一比例上升至0.7％的全球金融資產 2010.1因此，儘管黃金達到創紀錄的名義高點，世界上持有相同的部分，其財富的黃金，因為它沒有二十多年以前。雖然這可能表示，有關金融資產的增殖，在過去十年裡比它有關黃金投資，這是令人驚訝地注意到，瑣碎的黃金所有權的規模相比，全球金融資產。

增加黃金的所有權從 2000年的0.2％，0.7％，2010年也是誤導。如果你認為大概是2270億美元投資於金條於 2000年，該級別的投資將增長到118000000萬美元，或0.6％的金融資產，由2010年年底 - 完全基於黃金升值alone.2在其他也就是說，新的投資實際金額自2000年以來黃金只佔 0.1％當前全球金融資產，約合 2500億美元。雖然這個數字看起來很大，認為大致九八零零零零零零零零零零零零美元新的資本流入全球金融資產在同一時期，黃金的約 0.3％，佔全球投資流動基本上是trivial

0.7％的所有權也有有趣的數據點的影響對全球黃金的所有權向前發展。想想看，返回到一個有意義的黃金投資水平，我要對 1968年的5％的水平，這將需要超過 9萬億美元的黃金今天的投資，或約 65億盎司的黃金在目前的黃金價格。這將是超過 1.3倍的數額黃金生產過整個歷史和四倍的金額稱為黃金 reserves.所以，不僅是公共相對投資不足的黃金，但在目前的價格是不甚至可以增加我們的黃金儲備回有意義的水平。

黃金的明顯投資不足，也適用於自2000年以來黃金股本融資。根據我們的情報來源，黃金公司集資約 780億美元的股權資本在新的融資，在過去 11 years把這個量的角度來看，這相當於股本總額提高了科技公司的前三個月2000

為了進一步說明缺乏活動在黃金股票資本市場，我們比較去年的黃金公司融資與公司融資的技術在2000年。再次，在相對量看資本市場活動在黃金股票的市場，我們沒有發現任何跡象泡沫。

此外，我們對共同基金彙編資料流向獲得意義的平均零售投資者對黃金的胃口股權投資（圖 2）。結果我們發現很熟悉，以及在這方面：相對於美元的2.5萬億美元投資於美國共同基金自2000年以來，貴金屬股票基金所看到的只有120億美元流入。如果有一個泡沫，黃金投資，平均零售投資者並沒有參與其中。

要真正衡量水平繁榮（或缺乏）在今天的黃金市場，它的實益權益估值檢討，因為他們提供了一個良好的鏡頭到投資者情緒的一種資產類別。當然，如果一個泡沫正在形成中的黃金，它很可能會抬頭，在股市，那裡已被掏空的投機狂熱'大傻瓜'了幾個世紀。最好的黃金指數，審查估價是美國證交所黃金指數（回族），它返回一個驚人的674％，自​​2000年以來。這當然是一個指標，可能被誤認為是基於它的泡沫令人難以置信的性能...直到一認為其相對估值。在圖 3中，我們提出了一個時間序列圖比較價格對 EBITDA的回族對比認為，納斯達克綜合指數自1998年以來。價格對 EBITDA是一個估值指標來比較一家公司的股票價格，其利潤佔稅之前，利息支付和非現金費用如折舊及攤銷。它類似於普遍存在的價格對盈利性（P / E）的多方面的，但允許在一個比較各個期間的淨盈餘為負和P / E比率的無法估量的。

望著價格對 EBITDA倍數為 HUI指數絕對沒有證據，我們看到一個泡沫市場黃金股。在目前的水平的13倍的EBITDA，回族交易實際上是低於其15年平均水平的14倍。此外，對黃金股估值目前三分之一的水平達到了納斯達克在1999年年底。有根本沒有任何證據表明在黃金股估值過高，這肯定是我們所期望的暴行是最明顯的。

根據我們的調查結果，這個概念的黃金泡沫顯然是錯誤的。目前的投資興趣，黃金相對於其他金融資產仍然出奇的低 - 原處，而在20年前。此外，適度的黃金股票估值突出的情況下肆無忌憚的投資者對黃金的投資熱情。事實是，儘管這一切談談黃金泡沫，資本流入黃金可見，相對於其他金融資產，根本沒有大到足以表明任何投機熱潮。投資者可以放心，他們不會參與任何投機性泡沫通過擁有黃金。他們只是保護自己的財富

Gold’s continuous ten-year rise hasn’t sheltered it from controversy. Despite producing consistent returns in virtually all currencies year after year, some market pundits still question its validity as an asset class. It’s true that gold doesn’t pay any interest, and it’s also true that much of the gold produced throughout history still exists in some form today. But these characteristics shouldn’t inhibit it from performing as a monetary asset. Cash, after all, doesn’t pay real interest either, and there is more fiat money in existence today than ever before. So why does gold still receive such harsh criticism?

We believe much of it stems from a widely held misconception that gold is forming a financial bubble. It’s a fairly straightforward view – that gold buyers are merely foolhardy speculators buying on a whim with no rationale other than to sell to the ‘greater fool’ at higher prices in the future. It’s a view that assumes that gold has no intrinsic value and is simply a speculative asset that has captured investors’ imaginations.

We don’t take these views on gold lightly. We’ve seen bubbles before and fully know how they end. We have no interest whatsoever in participating in some sort of speculative frenzy – that’s a recipe for disaster in the investment business. Thankfully, however, our gold investments present no such risk. As our analysis has revealed, gold is actually a surprisingly under-owned asset class – and one that has generated far more attention in the media than it probably deserves. While its exemplary performance since 2000 is certainly worthy of discussion, gold simply hasn’t commanded enough investment to warrant the bubble fears it seems to have aroused among market pundits and business commentators. The truth about gold is that most people simply don’t own it…yet.

To be clear, a speculative bubble forms when prices for an asset class rise above a level justified by its fundamentals. For this to happen, increasing amounts of capital must flow into the asset class, bidding it up to irrational levels. Gold may be trading at all-time nominal highs, but a look at investment flows proves that it isn’t anywhere close to being overbought.

In their Gold Yearbook 2010, CPM Group noted that in 1968, gold held by individuals for investment purposes represented approximately 5% of global financial assets. By 1980 that amount had fallen to roughly 3%. By 1990 it had dropped significantly to 0.6%, and by the year 2000 represented a mere 0.2% of global assets. By the end of 2009, nine years into the gold bull market that began in 2000, they estimate that gold had increased to represent a mere 0.6% of global financial assets – hardly much of an increase. Gold ownership didn’t change much last year either, as we estimate that this percentage increased to 0.7% of global financial assets in 2010.So despite gold reaching record nominal highs, the world holds about the same portion of its wealth in gold as it did over two decades ago. While this probably says more about the proliferation of financial assets over the past decade than it does about gold investment, it is surprising to note how trivial gold ownership is when compared to the size of global financial assets.

The increase in gold ownership from 0.2% in 2000 to 0.7% in 2010 is also misleading. If you consider the approximate $227 billion that was invested in gold bullion in 2000, that level of investment would have grown to $1.18 trillion, or 0.6% of financial assets, by the end of 2010 - based purely on gold appreciation alone. In other words, the actual amount of new investment into gold since 2000 represents only 0.1% of current global financial assets, or about $250 billion. Although this number may seem large, consider that roughly $98 trillion of new capital flowed into global financial assets over the same period, so gold’s approximate 0.3% share of global investment flows is essentially trivial.

The 0.7% ownership data point also has interesting implications for global gold ownership going forward. Consider that to return to a meaningful level of gold investment, say to the 5% level of 1968, it would require over $9 trillion of gold investment today, or about 6.5 billion ounces of gold at the current gold price. This would represent well over 1.3 times the amount of gold ever produced throughout history and four times the amount of known gold reserves. So not only is the public relatively underinvested in gold, but at current prices it isn’t even possible to increase our gold holdings back to a meaningful level.

Gold’s apparent underinvestment also applies to gold equity financings since 2000. According to our sources, gold companies raised approximately $78 billion of equity capital in new financings over the past 11 years. To put this amount in perspective, this is equivalent to the total amount of equity raised by technology companies in the first three months of 2000.

To further illustrate the lack of activity in the gold equity capital markets, we compare last year’s gold company financings with the technology company financings in the year 2000 (Chart 1). Once again, looking at the relative amount of capital market activity in the gold equity markets, we find no indication of a bubble whatsoever.

Furthermore, we compiled information on mutual fund flows to get a sense for the average retail investor’s appetite for gold equity investments (Chart 2). We found very familiar results in this area as well: compared to the $2.5 trillion dollars that was invested in US mutual funds since 2000, precious metal equity funds have seen a mere $12 billion in inflows. If there is a bubble in gold investments, the average retail investor hasn’t participated in it.

To truly gauge the level of exuberance (or lack thereof) in today’s gold market, it’s beneficial to review equity valuations, since they provide an excellent lens into investor sentiment for an asset class. Certainly if a bubble was forming in gold, it would likely rear its head in the stock market, where speculative manias have been fleecing ‘greater fools’ for centuries. The best gold index to review for valuation is the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI), which has returned a stunning 674% since 2000. It is certainly an index that could be mistaken for a bubble based on its incredible performance… until one considers its relative valuation. In Chart 3 we present a time series chart comparing the price-to-EBITDA of the HUI vs. that of the Nasdaq Composite since 1998. Price-to-EBITDA is a valuation metric that compares a company’s stock price to its profits before accounting for taxes, interest payments, and non-cash charges like depreciation and amortization. It is similar to the ubiquitous price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple but allows for a comparison across periods where net earnings are negative and P/E ratio’s incalculable.

Looking at the price-to-EBITDA multiple for the HUI Index we see absolutely no evidence of a frothy market for gold stocks. At the current level of 13 times EBITDA, the HUI is actually trading below its 15-year average of 14 times. Moreover, valuations for gold stocks are currently one-third of the levels reached by the Nasdaq in late 1999. There simply isn’t any evidence of excessive valuations in gold stocks, which is most certainly where we would expect the excesses to be most apparent.

Based on our findings, this notion of a gold bubble is patently false. The current investment interest in gold relative to other financial assets remains surprisingly low - about where it was two decades ago. Moreover, the modest valuations of gold equities highlight the absence of unbridled investor enthusiasm for gold investments. The fact is, despite all this talk about the gold bubble, the capital flows into gold vis-à-vis other financial assets have simply not been large enough to indicate any speculative mania. Investors can rest assured that they are not participating in any speculative bubble by owning gold. They are merely protecting their wealth.