謝國忠：世界經濟已經著火必須同舟共濟
2008年11月01日東方早報
謝國忠搜狐博客http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/
各國合作才能挽救世界經濟：亞洲，歐洲國家要財政刺激增加需求;發展中國家要改變外匯資產結構，購買美國股票。
中 國有句成語叫“同舟共濟” ，它的意思是說，在一條船上的人們要互相幫助才能到達彼岸。現在，全球經濟就是這樣一條船，我們都在船上。如果美國經濟真的出現嚴重衰退，其他經濟體也會 遭殃。亞洲以及歐洲必須出手拯救世界經濟。剛剛在北京召開的第七屆亞歐峰會沒有將議題聚焦在穩定世界經濟上，而是討論新的世界金融建設的話題，這顯然是錯 失了處理這次危機的最佳時機。
本月，世界峰會將在華盛頓召開。這次峰會必須將議題放在更為緊急的問題上，而不要將時間浪費在討論諸如誰應該受指責，世界未來本該是怎樣的話題上。如果我們不能馬上展開行動，我們都將沉入海底。
市 場人士現在擔心的是，大蕭條，生存困難以及戰爭是否會發生。我認為，如果不加以人為控制，所有這些悲觀的預期都將實現。目前的問題還沒有市場所擔心的那麼 嚴重：目前損失的貨幣價值約為世界國內生產總值的100 ％ 。在美國-這次危機的震中，損失的財富只是相當於美國的國內生產總值總值。而當日本的泡沫破裂時，財富損失相當日本國內生產總值的3 00％ 。
但 是與日本經歷過的“失落的十年”相比，這次危機擴散的速度要快得多，波及的範圍也要廣泛得多，因為世界金融已經融為一體，很多紙面財富又已經被用於貸款抵 押。日本當年的泡沫可以用十年的時間逐漸擠除，這是因為它的金融是由本國銀行支撐的，相應的，本國銀行也可以控制資產縮水的速度。
而這次金融危機的特點是沒有可以控制的中心，這使得泡沫在資產縮水方面無法控制。這也是為什麼這次危機看起來這麼可怕。
當 今金融危機的速度以及範圍已經威脅了全球化進程，並可能造成巨大的衰退。衰退將使得保護主義盛行。如果每個國家都這麼做，世界經濟這塊大蛋糕將很快縮水。 經濟衰退還將引發政治不穩定，這將使得戰爭成為一個轉移經濟衰退注意力的誘人選擇。而戰爭又會引發世界經濟的進一步縮水。
這種惡性循 環已經多次破壞過我們的世界。我們必須也能夠阻止這個過程。首先，亞洲和歐洲國家需要進行額度為GDP5 ％的財政刺激以增加需求。其次，發展中國家需要改變外匯資產結構，將他們用於購買政府債券的資產變成美國股票。這樣做的好處將遠遠超過它的成本。如果實施 這兩項措施，世界經濟將很快穩定。也只有這樣，我們才有機會展開後續改革，並進一步遏制危機的深化。
這場金融危機的實質是“盎格魯撒克遜”國家的債務危機。正如我多次說過的，盎格魯撒克遜國家債務過多的另一面是發展中國家超過10個萬億美元的外匯儲備。這些國家的資產泡沫化的程度與其借款的程度相當。過度的消費導致了他們每年超過1萬億美元的財政赤字。
對於上述國家借款的援助來自亞洲，歐洲以及每個處在這次泡沫中的國家。我們不能單方面地指責美國。互相推諉責任不能解決問題，每個國家都有責任。
如 果僅僅是債務國單方面擠除泡沫，盎格魯撒克遜國家將經歷一次巨大的衰退。伴隨這一過程，赤字將大幅萎縮，通過減少進口，上述國家赤字很可能減少超過一半。 通過降低稅率以及財政刺激，盎格魯撒克遜經濟可以暫時緩解他們的痛苦，但是對於世界經濟面臨的這次衰退而言，故事的主題還是沒有改變。
因此，其他國家將經受貿易順差減少帶來的劇痛。除非他們能夠增加國內需求，否則也將陷入衰退。
另外，我們來看看資產縮水帶來的財富效應。 50萬億美元的貨幣損失相當於美國需求減少2.5萬億美元，或者4 ％ -5 ％的世界國內生產總值。如果將趨勢增長考慮進來，負增長將達到上述規模一半。
但是，需求的萎縮還將帶來其他負面效果，使得目前的局面更加惡化。如果世界經濟不能增加額度達到2萬億美元的財政刺激，需求的萎縮不能停止，它的負面效果也將繼續。
亞 洲和歐洲必須採取財政刺激，才能避免盎格魯撒克遜經濟體因為減少貿易赤字所帶來的損失。亞洲和歐洲的國內生產總值總額達到25萬億美元，以6 ％計算，能夠支出的刺激額度在1.5萬億美元。很多亞洲以及歐洲國家的政府已經有很高水平的負債。但現在還不是擔心這個的時候。房子已經著火了，即便現在 水不夠，我們也必須將我們能夠利用的水資源撲滅這場大火。
除了來自亞洲以及歐洲的需求刺激，還需要緊急增加投資資金，尤其在盎格魯撒克遜經濟體。否則，他們的去槓桿化將很快發生。擁有大量外匯儲備的國家的最好方法是賣掉政府債券，購買美國股市指數基金。
盎格魯撒克遜國家缺少資金和發展中國家大量的外匯儲備是一枚硬幣的兩面。除非中國，日本和石油出口國能夠盡快行動，否則盎格魯撒克遜經濟將很快萎縮，這將使貿易衰退加深，造成更多人的痛苦。
除此之外，對於想要進行長期投資的投資者來說，股票已經足夠便宜。這也是巴菲特正在做的。是時候讓日本，中國付諸行動了。他們將能夠幫助自己也幫助世界。
世界經濟已經著火。每個政府都必須參與救火，並且，現在就行動。
（東方早報理財一週報編輯王誠誠翻譯）
The world must unite to tackle the financial crisis, with Asia and Europe at the fore, or we'll all go under
Updated on Oct 30, 2008
There is a Chinese saying that people in the same boat must help each other. The global economy is a boat. We are all in it. If the US economy capsizes, so will everyone else's. Asia and Europe must take action now to save the global economy. The Asia-Europe Meeting in Beijing missed a golden opportunity to tackle the crisis. Instead of focusing on the urgent task of stabilising the global economy, it wasted time on longer-term issues like a new global financial architecture.
Next month's global summit in Washington state must focus on the urgent task at hand and not waste time on who is to blame and what the future should look like. Unless we all work together now, we will all sink.
The market is talking about a great depression, bread lines and war. That pessimism could be self-fulfilling if left unchecked. The problem that the world faces is not as big as the market believes: the loss of paper wealth is 100 per cent of global gross domestic product - and in the US, the epicentre of the crisis, the loss is about 100 per cent of America's GDP. When Japan's bubble burst, the wealth loss exceeded 300 per cent of GDP.
Compared to Japan's problem a decade ago, this crisis is unfolding much faster and spreading wider, due to financial globalisation, and a big chunk of that paper wealth had already been consumed through borrowing against it. Japan's bubble was able to deflate gradually over a decade because it had been financed by local banks that could control the pace of asset deflation.
The decentralised nature of financing the Anglo-Saxon bubble makes its bursting uncontrollable in terms of the speed of asset deflation. This is why it looks so frightening.
The speed and scope of today's crisis threatens to reverse globalisation and cause a great depression along the way. Recession makes protectionism appealing for hoarding demand at home. When everyone does it, the economic pie shrinks even faster. The political instability that results from depression makes war an attractive option to divert attention.
Wars shrink the pie even faster. Such vicious cycles have destroyed the world many times before. The global community can and must stop the process. Asia and Europe should first implement fiscal stimulus of 5 per cent of their GDP and, second, convert their foreign exchange reserves into stocks, especially in the United States, from government bonds. The benefits of such actions far outweigh the costs. If these two measures are implemented, the global economy will stabilise quickly. Only afterwards can we focus on reforms to prevent future crises.
This is an Anglo-Saxon debt crisis. As I have argued here before, the other side of the excessive debt in Anglo-Saxon economies is the US$10 trillion forex reserves in emerging economies. The asset bubble in the Anglo-Saxon world gave them the equity capital for borrowing. Their excessive consumption resulted in their US$1 trillion annual trade deficit.
The financing for the deficit came from surplus countries in Asia and Europe - in short, every major economy is part of the bubble. We should not point figures only at the US. The blame game won't solve the problems; everyone is guilty.
The Anglo-Saxon economies will experience a huge downturn as they unwind the bubble. A byproduct will be the massive contraction of their deficits, probably by more than half, through import reductions. While Anglo-Saxon economies can alleviate their pain temporarily through cutting interest rates and boosting fiscal spending, the main theme of the story won't change.
Hence, the rest of the world will suffer massive reductions of trade surpluses, regardless of their policies. Unless they increase domestic demand, they will also suffer big recessions.
An alternative perspective is to look at the wealth effect of asset deflation. A US$50 trillion loss in paper wealth may cut demand by US$2.5 trillion to US$3 trillion or 4 per cent to 5 per cent of global GDP. Taking into consideration trend growth, the negative growth would be half as much.
But, the contraction in demand will have a large multiplier effect, exacerbating the damage. If the global economy adds US$2 trillion of fiscal stimulus, this still won't stop it contracting and minimising the multiplier effect.
The stimulus must take place mainly in Asia and Europe to allow the Anglo-Saxon economies to decrease trade deficits. Asia and Europe, with GDP of about US$25 trillion, are capable of implanting US$1.5 trillion (6 per cent of their GDP) of fiscal stimulus. Many governments in Asia and Europe already have high levels of debt. But, this is not the time to worry about it. The house is on fire. Even if there is a water shortage, you must use what you have to put the fire out now.
In addition to demand stimulus in Asia and Europe, there is an urgent need to increase risk capital, especially in Anglo-Saxon economies. Otherwise, their deleveraging will happen too fast. The best way to do it is for countries with big foreign exchange reserves to buy index funds and sell their government bond holdings, especially in the United States.
Lack of capital in Anglo-Saxon economies and massive foreign exchange reserves in the developing world are two sides of the same coin. Unless China, Japan and the oil exporting countries act, the Anglo-Saxon economies could contract excessively, which would deepen the trade downturn, causing pain for everyone.
Besides, stocks are cheap enough for investors to make money in the long run. This is what Warren Buffett is doing. It is time for the Bank of Japan, the People's Bank of China, Kingdom Capital, and others, to do the same. They will help themselves and the world, too.
The global economy is on fire. Every government must pitch in to put it out. The time for action is now.
Andy Xie is an independent economist
2008年11月01日東方早報
謝國忠搜狐博客http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/
各國合作才能挽救世界經濟：亞洲，歐洲國家要財政刺激增加需求;發展中國家要改變外匯資產結構，購買美國股票。
中 國有句成語叫“同舟共濟” ，它的意思是說，在一條船上的人們要互相幫助才能到達彼岸。現在，全球經濟就是這樣一條船，我們都在船上。如果美國經濟真的出現嚴重衰退，其他經濟體也會 遭殃。亞洲以及歐洲必須出手拯救世界經濟。剛剛在北京召開的第七屆亞歐峰會沒有將議題聚焦在穩定世界經濟上，而是討論新的世界金融建設的話題，這顯然是錯 失了處理這次危機的最佳時機。
本月，世界峰會將在華盛頓召開。這次峰會必須將議題放在更為緊急的問題上，而不要將時間浪費在討論諸如誰應該受指責，世界未來本該是怎樣的話題上。如果我們不能馬上展開行動，我們都將沉入海底。
市 場人士現在擔心的是，大蕭條，生存困難以及戰爭是否會發生。我認為，如果不加以人為控制，所有這些悲觀的預期都將實現。目前的問題還沒有市場所擔心的那麼 嚴重：目前損失的貨幣價值約為世界國內生產總值的100 ％ 。在美國-這次危機的震中，損失的財富只是相當於美國的國內生產總值總值。而當日本的泡沫破裂時，財富損失相當日本國內生產總值的3 00％ 。
但 是與日本經歷過的“失落的十年”相比，這次危機擴散的速度要快得多，波及的範圍也要廣泛得多，因為世界金融已經融為一體，很多紙面財富又已經被用於貸款抵 押。日本當年的泡沫可以用十年的時間逐漸擠除，這是因為它的金融是由本國銀行支撐的，相應的，本國銀行也可以控制資產縮水的速度。
而這次金融危機的特點是沒有可以控制的中心，這使得泡沫在資產縮水方面無法控制。這也是為什麼這次危機看起來這麼可怕。
當 今金融危機的速度以及範圍已經威脅了全球化進程，並可能造成巨大的衰退。衰退將使得保護主義盛行。如果每個國家都這麼做，世界經濟這塊大蛋糕將很快縮水。 經濟衰退還將引發政治不穩定，這將使得戰爭成為一個轉移經濟衰退注意力的誘人選擇。而戰爭又會引發世界經濟的進一步縮水。
這種惡性循 環已經多次破壞過我們的世界。我們必須也能夠阻止這個過程。首先，亞洲和歐洲國家需要進行額度為GDP5 ％的財政刺激以增加需求。其次，發展中國家需要改變外匯資產結構，將他們用於購買政府債券的資產變成美國股票。這樣做的好處將遠遠超過它的成本。如果實施 這兩項措施，世界經濟將很快穩定。也只有這樣，我們才有機會展開後續改革，並進一步遏制危機的深化。
這場金融危機的實質是“盎格魯撒克遜”國家的債務危機。正如我多次說過的，盎格魯撒克遜國家債務過多的另一面是發展中國家超過10個萬億美元的外匯儲備。這些國家的資產泡沫化的程度與其借款的程度相當。過度的消費導致了他們每年超過1萬億美元的財政赤字。
對於上述國家借款的援助來自亞洲，歐洲以及每個處在這次泡沫中的國家。我們不能單方面地指責美國。互相推諉責任不能解決問題，每個國家都有責任。
如 果僅僅是債務國單方面擠除泡沫，盎格魯撒克遜國家將經歷一次巨大的衰退。伴隨這一過程，赤字將大幅萎縮，通過減少進口，上述國家赤字很可能減少超過一半。 通過降低稅率以及財政刺激，盎格魯撒克遜經濟可以暫時緩解他們的痛苦，但是對於世界經濟面臨的這次衰退而言，故事的主題還是沒有改變。
因此，其他國家將經受貿易順差減少帶來的劇痛。除非他們能夠增加國內需求，否則也將陷入衰退。
另外，我們來看看資產縮水帶來的財富效應。 50萬億美元的貨幣損失相當於美國需求減少2.5萬億美元，或者4 ％ -5 ％的世界國內生產總值。如果將趨勢增長考慮進來，負增長將達到上述規模一半。
但是，需求的萎縮還將帶來其他負面效果，使得目前的局面更加惡化。如果世界經濟不能增加額度達到2萬億美元的財政刺激，需求的萎縮不能停止，它的負面效果也將繼續。
亞 洲和歐洲必須採取財政刺激，才能避免盎格魯撒克遜經濟體因為減少貿易赤字所帶來的損失。亞洲和歐洲的國內生產總值總額達到25萬億美元，以6 ％計算，能夠支出的刺激額度在1.5萬億美元。很多亞洲以及歐洲國家的政府已經有很高水平的負債。但現在還不是擔心這個的時候。房子已經著火了，即便現在 水不夠，我們也必須將我們能夠利用的水資源撲滅這場大火。
除了來自亞洲以及歐洲的需求刺激，還需要緊急增加投資資金，尤其在盎格魯撒克遜經濟體。否則，他們的去槓桿化將很快發生。擁有大量外匯儲備的國家的最好方法是賣掉政府債券，購買美國股市指數基金。
盎格魯撒克遜國家缺少資金和發展中國家大量的外匯儲備是一枚硬幣的兩面。除非中國，日本和石油出口國能夠盡快行動，否則盎格魯撒克遜經濟將很快萎縮，這將使貿易衰退加深，造成更多人的痛苦。
除此之外，對於想要進行長期投資的投資者來說，股票已經足夠便宜。這也是巴菲特正在做的。是時候讓日本，中國付諸行動了。他們將能夠幫助自己也幫助世界。
世界經濟已經著火。每個政府都必須參與救火，並且，現在就行動。
（東方早報理財一週報編輯王誠誠翻譯）
The world must unite to tackle the financial crisis, with Asia and Europe at the fore, or we'll all go under
Updated on Oct 30, 2008
There is a Chinese saying that people in the same boat must help each other. The global economy is a boat. We are all in it. If the US economy capsizes, so will everyone else's. Asia and Europe must take action now to save the global economy. The Asia-Europe Meeting in Beijing missed a golden opportunity to tackle the crisis. Instead of focusing on the urgent task of stabilising the global economy, it wasted time on longer-term issues like a new global financial architecture.
Next month's global summit in Washington state must focus on the urgent task at hand and not waste time on who is to blame and what the future should look like. Unless we all work together now, we will all sink.
The market is talking about a great depression, bread lines and war. That pessimism could be self-fulfilling if left unchecked. The problem that the world faces is not as big as the market believes: the loss of paper wealth is 100 per cent of global gross domestic product - and in the US, the epicentre of the crisis, the loss is about 100 per cent of America's GDP. When Japan's bubble burst, the wealth loss exceeded 300 per cent of GDP.
Compared to Japan's problem a decade ago, this crisis is unfolding much faster and spreading wider, due to financial globalisation, and a big chunk of that paper wealth had already been consumed through borrowing against it. Japan's bubble was able to deflate gradually over a decade because it had been financed by local banks that could control the pace of asset deflation.
The decentralised nature of financing the Anglo-Saxon bubble makes its bursting uncontrollable in terms of the speed of asset deflation. This is why it looks so frightening.
The speed and scope of today's crisis threatens to reverse globalisation and cause a great depression along the way. Recession makes protectionism appealing for hoarding demand at home. When everyone does it, the economic pie shrinks even faster. The political instability that results from depression makes war an attractive option to divert attention.
Wars shrink the pie even faster. Such vicious cycles have destroyed the world many times before. The global community can and must stop the process. Asia and Europe should first implement fiscal stimulus of 5 per cent of their GDP and, second, convert their foreign exchange reserves into stocks, especially in the United States, from government bonds. The benefits of such actions far outweigh the costs. If these two measures are implemented, the global economy will stabilise quickly. Only afterwards can we focus on reforms to prevent future crises.
This is an Anglo-Saxon debt crisis. As I have argued here before, the other side of the excessive debt in Anglo-Saxon economies is the US$10 trillion forex reserves in emerging economies. The asset bubble in the Anglo-Saxon world gave them the equity capital for borrowing. Their excessive consumption resulted in their US$1 trillion annual trade deficit.
The financing for the deficit came from surplus countries in Asia and Europe - in short, every major economy is part of the bubble. We should not point figures only at the US. The blame game won't solve the problems; everyone is guilty.
The Anglo-Saxon economies will experience a huge downturn as they unwind the bubble. A byproduct will be the massive contraction of their deficits, probably by more than half, through import reductions. While Anglo-Saxon economies can alleviate their pain temporarily through cutting interest rates and boosting fiscal spending, the main theme of the story won't change.
Hence, the rest of the world will suffer massive reductions of trade surpluses, regardless of their policies. Unless they increase domestic demand, they will also suffer big recessions.
An alternative perspective is to look at the wealth effect of asset deflation. A US$50 trillion loss in paper wealth may cut demand by US$2.5 trillion to US$3 trillion or 4 per cent to 5 per cent of global GDP. Taking into consideration trend growth, the negative growth would be half as much.
But, the contraction in demand will have a large multiplier effect, exacerbating the damage. If the global economy adds US$2 trillion of fiscal stimulus, this still won't stop it contracting and minimising the multiplier effect.
The stimulus must take place mainly in Asia and Europe to allow the Anglo-Saxon economies to decrease trade deficits. Asia and Europe, with GDP of about US$25 trillion, are capable of implanting US$1.5 trillion (6 per cent of their GDP) of fiscal stimulus. Many governments in Asia and Europe already have high levels of debt. But, this is not the time to worry about it. The house is on fire. Even if there is a water shortage, you must use what you have to put the fire out now.
In addition to demand stimulus in Asia and Europe, there is an urgent need to increase risk capital, especially in Anglo-Saxon economies. Otherwise, their deleveraging will happen too fast. The best way to do it is for countries with big foreign exchange reserves to buy index funds and sell their government bond holdings, especially in the United States.
Lack of capital in Anglo-Saxon economies and massive foreign exchange reserves in the developing world are two sides of the same coin. Unless China, Japan and the oil exporting countries act, the Anglo-Saxon economies could contract excessively, which would deepen the trade downturn, causing pain for everyone.
Besides, stocks are cheap enough for investors to make money in the long run. This is what Warren Buffett is doing. It is time for the Bank of Japan, the People's Bank of China, Kingdom Capital, and others, to do the same. They will help themselves and the world, too.
The global economy is on fire. Every government must pitch in to put it out. The time for action is now.
Andy Xie is an independent economist
沒有留言:
張貼留言